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 County results Escobar: 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% Abbott: 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% >90% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 2026 Texas gubernatorial election took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, to elect the governor of Texas. Incumbent Republican governor Greg Abbott ran for re-election to a fourth consecutive four-year term, however was narrowly defeated by the Democratic nominee, U.S. representative Veronica Escobar in what was widely characterized as a major political shift for the historically heavily conservative state, which had not elected a Democrat as its governor since Ann Richards in 1990. The election was held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm elections, which were widely described as a blue wave with substantial Democratic gains in the House of Representatives, Senate and governorships. Included in the midterms were the 2026 Texas elections, a realigning election which saw Democratic-aligned candidates make substantial gains in both chambers of the Texas Legislature, the Texas Supreme Court, as well as flipping several other statewide offices including lieutenant governor and attorney general.
Abbott was widely seen as perhaps the most vulnerable incumbent governor nationally in the 2026 midterms, with Texas' leftward political shift coupled with Abbott's support for President Ron DeSantis as well as his legal disputes with the Department of Justice over the usage of devices aimed at incapacitating, maiming and killing immigrants attempting to cross the Rio Grande, something which the Justice Department had repeatedly maintained was a violation of Mexico's national sovereignty and had led to a diplomatic dispute between the two nations. However, Abbott was expected to be benefited by his status as the seat's long-time incumbent, having served as governor since 2015, as well as Texas' general Republican tilt. However, polling consistently showed a close race, with composite opinion polling by the day of the election having Escobar and Abbott tied at 48%, and most pundits considered the race to be a toss-up.
The results of the race were initially unclear, with the two candidates virtually tied well into the early morning of November 4, however the Associated Press (AP) called the race for Escobar at 4:19 am CDT (9;19 am GMT) on the 4th, at which point 97% of the votes were counted with Escobar leading Abbott 49.15%-49.09%, a margin of only 0.06%. Most pundits followed suit over the next couple hours, and Escobar claimed victory at 10:33 am CDT (3:33 pm GMT). While Abbott had pledged to respect the election results, he almost immediately rejected the results and announced that he would not concede defeat. Abbott ordered an election recount be held, claiming that the audit would "all but affirm his victory," however the results of the recount were released on December 2, and in fact showed that Abbott had lost by a wider margin than initially projected, losing to Escobar 49.22%-48.91% (a margin of 0.31%). Though he initially rejected the veracity of the recount, Abbott eventually conceded on December 10, and Escobar was sworn in on January 19, 2027.
Republican primary[]
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Democratic primary[]
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Green primary[]
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Libertarian convention[]
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Independents and other parties[]
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General election[]
Predictions[]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| TBD | Tossup | TBD |
| TBD | Tilt D (flip) | TBD |
| TBD | Tossup | TBD |
| TBD | Tilt D (flip) | TBD |
| TBD | Lean D (flip) | TBD |
| TBD | Tossup | TBD |
| TBD | Lean R | TBD |
Polling[]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Veronica Escobar (D) |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBD | October 30-November 2, 2026 | 995 (LV) | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| TBD | October 24-28, 2026 | 2,049 (LV) | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| TBD | October 21-25, 2026 | 1,950 (LV) | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| TBD | October 15-21, 2026 | 1,932 (LV) | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| TBD | October 14-18, 2026 | 832 (LV) | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| TBD | October 12-15, 2026 | 2,305 (LV) | 51% | 46% | 3% |
| TBD | October 7-11, 2026 | 1,759 (LV) | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| TBD | October 3-7, 2026 | 569 (LV) | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| TBD | September 27-October 1, 2026 | 2,110 (LV) | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| TBD | September 19-23, 2026 | 1,934 (LV) | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| TBD | September 10-14, 2026 | 1,735 (LV) | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| TBD | September 5-10, 2026 | 1,044 (LV) | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| TBD | August 29-September 3, 2026 | 1,735 (LV) | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| TBD | August 21-25, 2026 | 2,953 (LV) | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| TBD | August 15-19, 2026 | 936 (LV) | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| TBD | August 10-16, 2026 | 2,553 (LV) | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| TBD | August 5-9, 2026 | 958 (LV) | 47% | 40% | 13% |
| TBD | July 28-August 2, 2026 | 1,303 (LV) | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| TBD | July 23-27, 2026 | 1,415 (LV) | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| TBD | July 15-19, 2026 | 910 (LV) | 39% | 45% | 16% |
| TBD | July 9-14, 2026 | 1,589 (LV) | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| TBD | July 4-7, 2026 | 1,440 (LV) | 39% | 44% | 17% |
| TBD | June 28-June 1, 2026 | 1,039 (LV) | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| TBD | June 18-23, 2026 | 1,559 (LV) | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| TBD | June 8-12, 2026 | 2,044 (LV) | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| TBD | June 2-4, 2026 | 604 (LV) | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| TBD | May 25-29, 2026 | 1,995 (LV) | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| TBD | May 20-23, 2026 | 549 (LV) | 39% | 41% | 20% |
| TBD | May 11-14, 2026 | 1,022 (LV) | 38% | 40% | 22% |
| TBD | April 27-May 1, 2026 | 435 (LV) | 37% | 41% | 22% |
| TBD | April 15-18, 2026 | 1,329 (LV) | 38% | 41% | 21% |
| TBD | April 3-6, 2026 | 658 (LV) | 37% | 40% | 23% |
| TBD | March 21-25, 2026 | 1,334 (LV) | 40% | 41% | 19% |
| TBD | March 13-17, 2026 | 994 (LV) | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| TBD | March 5-8, 2026 | 941 (LV) | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| TBD | March 1-3, 2026 | 769 (LV) | 38% | 42% | 20% |
| - | Average | - | 43% | 44% | 13% |
Results[]
WIP